Starominski-Uehara, M. (2022). Governance in Crisis: Institutionalizing Reflective Report to Guide Decision Making Under Uncertainty. In Proceedings of the Paris Institute for Advanced Study (Vol. 16). https://paris.pias.science/article/FP_Starominski 

summary by Perplexity:

The paper proposes a method called "reflective reports" to guide national leaders in making decisions under uncertainty, such as during crises like the COVID-19 pandemic. The key aspects are:

• Leaders gather a small group of thoughtful advisors from different fields to provide concise recommendations in a structured narrative format.

• Advisors expose the assumptions, limitations, and trade-offs of their recommendations to help leaders grasp the complexity.

• The structured format of brief narratives helps leaders easily understand and remember key points before deciding, without being overwhelmed by information.

• Limitations include advisors oversimplifying or missing key facts, lack of diverse perspectives, and cognitive biases of leaders.

The aim is to optimize decision-making processes under time, information and resource constraints by incorporating critical thinking and transparency about uncertainties. The paper discusses applying this approach in the context of Brazil's COVID-19 response.