The Answer Spain Never Sent
Published in Australian Outlook (Australian Institute of International Affairs), 13 October 2026

Spain’s intelligence services detected the Ceuta border surge before it happened. They even identified the social media groups driving it. So why did more than 70,000 people still cross from Morocco into Ceuta in just two days? In this analysis, I argue that Spain’s failure was not one of foresight but of response: authorities never entered the digital spaces where the mobilisation was building.

Drawing on Pierre-Paul Grassé’s 1959 research on termite nest-building and my work on human stigmergy and metamarks, I show how scattered, hesitant crossing attempts reached a threshold and tipped into self-coordinated mass behaviour, and why counter-messaging must happen inside the same channels, before that threshold is crossed.

Read the full article: The Answer Spain Never Sent, Australian Outlook

By Dr Marvin Starominski-Uehara. Topics: Ceuta migration crisis, Spain and Morocco, social media and border security, stigmergy, collective behaviour, counter-messaging, risk management.